“We find a significant increase in firearm violence in the United States associated with the coronavirus pandemic-related surge in firearm purchasing,” according to findings published by researchers from the University of California–Davis and the University of California Firearm Violence Research Center. The findings have been publicly released but not yet been peer reviewed.
The researchers analyzed monthly firearms purchases and firearms violence for the lower 48 states (Alaska and Hawaii had missing or incomplete data) and the District of Columbia from January 2018 through May 2020. Based on their modeling and preliminary conclusions, the researchers estimate Americans bought 2.1 million more firearms than past buying trends would indicate — what they call excess firearms purchases — from March-May 2020, the months in which the coronavirus pandemic began to hit hardest in the United States.
Further, the researchers estimated an 8% increase in firearms violence from March through May, or 776 additional injuries or deaths across the nation, which the researchers associate with the increase in purchasing. Firearm injuries include shootings, homicides and suicides.
The study’s authors noted that the increase in sales alone likely wasn’t enough to fully explain the increase in violence. “The pandemic has exacerbated factors that contribute to interpersonal violence, including financial stress, tension, trauma, worry, and a sense of hopelessness,” they wrote.
“All of that can make people feel on edge, hopeless,” said Julia Schleimer, the study’s lead author and a UC Davis data analyst. “Again, the trauma is something that drives violence, so it’s important to recognize all of those contributing factors.”
The study has not been peer-reviewed, a process that can take many months. Schleimer said the authors plan to submit the work for peer review, but wanted to release the findings because of their timely relevance. Before most academic journals accept research for publication, the findings are reviewed by other academics in fields similar to the authors, in an effort to ensure veracity.
Preliminary data and estimates show an even bigger spike in gun sales in June. Schleimer said her team plans to continue their work as the pandemic crawls on. She expected to see another uptick in firearms violence associated with the increase in sales from June.
Excess firearms sales were based on modeling, which determined the estimate of 2.1 million excess sales for the three-month period. However, modeling isn’t an exact measurement. The true estimate falls within a range. In research terms, this range is referred to as a 95% confidence interval.
Editor’s note: A previous version of this story incorrectly stated that the research included data on suicides. The data reflects interpersonal firearm violence; suicides are excluded. The story is also updated with more information on the study’s modeling.
Guns & America is a public media reporting project on the role of guns in American life.