Many graduating college students across the nation—and in North Carolina—are feeling uncertain as they enter the job market.
Elena Holder is a recent graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill. Though she's moving straight from college to employment, she still describes the market as "really, really bad."
"I have been really fortunate in that I have gotten a full-time offer, but I am one of the only people that I know who has and I had to do two years of work to be eligible for an entry-level position, which is just not entry level at all," she said.
Mele Buice, a recent graduate from Duke University, said she feels similarly.
"Being surrounded with a class of students graduating where so many people don't have jobs for post-graduation is kind of crazy, because I feel like that's not that common at a place like Duke, where everyone's so pre-professional and has their plans before even their senior year," she said.
Buice said while some friends have secured jobs in fields like banking and consulting, others are applying and networking as much as possible—with few results following. She described her own search for a job as disheartening.
"I feel like I've been given all the tools to get a great job that I love and want, but I haven't been able to see that fully come to life," she said.
Holder said she knows several people that are attending graduate school not because they need to or want to—but because they don't feel they can be successful in the job market.
And it's possible that discouragement could continue. Some economists are predicting the market could worsen under the uncertainty President Trump’s tariffs are causing for certain businesses.
The unemployment problem
A New York Fed report tracking quarterly census data shows a new trend for recent grads. Since December, unemployment rose a full percentage point to 5.8%—while the general unemployment rate sits at around 4%.
Olivia Healy, a labor economics expert at Elon University, said this is a historic shift.
“It's an unprecedented time where the unemployment rate for [recent] college graduates is higher than just the overall unemployment rate,” Healy said. "It used to be the case that if you had a college degree, you were more likely to be employed than just the general population of workers out there, and it's very new that that's not the case."
Healy said it's a result of several moving parts. To start, there are more people graduating from college now than ever before—meaning the supply of entry-level workers is increasing while the demand is not.
There are also cultural influences at play, Healy said. In the case of the pandemic, students who pursued a degree in that time could have had less opportunities because of it. And as the use of generative AI grows, the skills needed for entry-level jobs may be shifting to eclipse recent graduates.
Healy said that with all these changes, "college graduates indicate that higher education may need to adapt."
"There has been an increasing trend, and this has happened across history, moving away from college as a liberal arts kind of cognitive endeavor and towards more professional preparation," she said. "And I think that right now, you see the rising popularity of degrees and college programs that involve some type of on-the-job training."
The underemployment problem
This new expectation for experience plays a part in another metric for recent grads: underemployment—or the share of graduates in jobs that don't typically require a college degree. The New York Fed report tracks its rise of about 2 points since December, to 41.2%.
"I think underemployment may reflect a mismatch between what types of skills we think are needed for a role, and what we think education is providing in terms of those skills," Healy said.
However, Healy said she's less concerned about underemployment for recent grads. For some recent grads, it may mean they choose a part-time job that will provide experience in a new field of choice. For others, though, they could be making employment decisions that have more to do with personal goals outside of work.
But for those that end up underemployed despite their best efforts, Healy said large-scale intervention may be needed to boost the demand for labor.
"That's where policy can come into play, in terms of thinking about, how do we generate more job opportunities for this demographic, and what types of economic policies or innovations would help bridge that mismatch."
A ray of hope for North Carolina
There is some good news for graduates in North Carolina. myFutureNC found that roughly eight out of every ten college graduates had skills that aligned with job listings in the state. While that varies from region-to-region—in Pinehurst-Rockingham, for example, that alignment sat at a little less than half—the average suggests many students can find success.
Healy said she's seen that success among her students at Elon—even if it's more hard-won than before.
"By and large, our students are saying it's not the college degree, it's the interpersonal connections that I make with people in my field," she said. "It is the interview skills that I'm developing by having gone through the internship process. It is my plan to go on to further training and graduate school that distinguishes me."
