RENEE MONTAGNE, HOST:
We turn now to the race for the White House in 2016. This morning, one would-be candidate is officially in. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas announced his intentions early this morning with a tweet. Cokie Roberts is here with us, as she is most Mondays, to tell us more. Good morning.
COKIE ROBERTS, BYLINE: Hi, Renee.
MONTAGNE: So Ted Cruz made it official. But why do you...
ROBERTS: Right.
MONTAGNE: Why do you think he decided to declare before any of his Republican rivals?
ROBERTS: Well, his tweet, by the way, says, I am running for president and I hope to earn your support. And he has a link to a video where he calls - says, what's required is a new generation of courageous conservatives, a not-so-subtle swipe at Jeb Bush. And I think that that is why he is getting in so early. He sees that former Governor Bush is soaking up some cash in the Republican Party. But also he got in very early when he ran an insurgent campaign for the Senate, and that worked for him.
I think that what he's trying to do - he's going to Liberty University, the Baptist school that was founded by Jerry Falwell, who was also the founder of the Moral Majority, which was that organized entrance into politics of evangelical Christians. And Cruz is there to say, look, I appeal not just to the Tea Party, with which he is identified, but also to evangelical Christians. His father is a Baptist pastor. He's bringing, for the first time, his adorable little girls onto the stage. He allowed pictures of them yesterday. So he's making a pitch for evangelical Christians who are a huge part, especially, of the Iowa primary or caucus electorate.
The problem there, Renee, though, is that now that these days when you convene a group of people like Jerry Falwell used to be, they no longer see themselves as the majority. They see themselves as countercultural, trying to hold a firm moral position in the face of changing attitudes about things like same-sex marriage.
MONTAGNE: So it makes it a little tougher in that respect. But problems well beyond those having to do with the strength of the evangelical but would seem to be looming for Ted Cruz, all reports are that he has totally alienated his own party leaders in Congress. How true is that?
ROBERTS: That's totally true. John McCain has called him wacko bird. But he can use that to his advantage, saying I'm not part of the old school. I'm not part of the establishment. It helps him with small donors, and he hopes to raise about 40 to 50 million dollars. And, look, the leaders were furious with him for forcing a government shutdown, but then the Republican Party won big in November. So his message is, look, people want true believers, not, as he puts it, the mushy middle. And he's been out in the early primary states with that message.
Now, look, the problem in the general election is most Americans are in fact in the mushy middle. In 2012, 41 percent identified as moderates as opposed to 35 percent conservative. And the moderate plurality went for Obama over Romney by 15 points. So Cruz can gin up the faithful by rallying against the mushy middle. But at the moment, it doesn't look like a winning strategy for Republicans.
MONTAGNE: And Cokie, there are Democrats who seem to be rallying against what they call the mushy middle as well. I mean, yesterday, The Boston Globe called on the senator from the newspaper's own state, Elizabeth Warren, to get into the race. A quote from that is, "Democrats would be making a big mistake if they let Hillary Clinton coast to the presidential nomination." What do you think is likely to happen there?
ROBERTS: Well, I think that they make a good point. For a candidate to go untested into a general election is not good for a party. Now, you can make the case that Hillary Clinton has been tested, but not in this recent incarnation. But look, the liberals have the same problem the conservatives do. Conservatives are 35 percent in the last election. Liberals 25 percent. So that mushy middle is where the Democrats need to be as well. And so far, Hillary Clinton is holding that. Sixty-two percent in the latest CNN poll said that they would still support her even after the email controversy.
MONTAGNE: Lots and lots more to come. Cokie, thanks very much. Cokie Roberts join us most Mondays. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
