Modeling Shows Positive Signs For Reopening NC

Apr 29, 2020

ICU bed modeling during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Credit Sheps Center for Health Services Research

Updated modeling shows social distancing is working, and the spread of the coronavirus has slowed in North Carolina.

But that doesn't mean the state is in the clear.

The report concludes North Carolina's health care system appears to have the capacity available to warrant a gradual re-opening of the state. 

Mark Holmes is one of the data scientists working on the modeling and the head of UNC's Sheps Center for Health Services Research. Holmes says it's hard to imagine a scenario where the state reaches that capacity in the next four weeks.

"But, depending on how quickly we open things up, if we move too quickly, we could get to it shortly after that."

North Carolina has yet to see a sustained decrease in reported COVID-19 cases or related deaths, which the researchers say would be an indicator the outbreak has been contained.