Just four years ago, a race for the North Carolina Supreme Court came down to a little more than 400 votes. Ultimately, after recounts failed to alter the outcome, Chief Justice Cheri Beasley, the Democratic incumbent, conceded defeat to Republican Paul Newby.
Now, the outcome in this year's sole contest for a seat on the state Supreme Court could hinge on many thousands of provisional ballots that will be processed by county elections boards over the next week and a half.
Through Election Day, Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin, currently a judge on the North Carolina Court of Appeals, led Democratic incumbent Justice Allison Riggs by fewer than 10,000 votes.
According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, more than 60,000 provisional ballots were cast on Election Day. Now, during the county canvass, the 10-day, post-election audit process, local elections boards will process those ballots, in addition to the more than 5,700 provisionals cast during the early voting period.
Voters must cast provisional ballots in a variety of situations, such as when their registration status can't be confirmed at the polling site, when they show up at the wrong precinct on Election Day, or when they do not present a photo ID.
Not all provisional ballots end up getting approved and counted by the local elections board, which must validate the voter's eligibility. In 2020, for example, only around a third of the more than 40,000 provisional ballots cast ended up getting approved.
Depending on how many provisional ballots get approved this year—and in which blue or red counties they were cast—the ultimate tally could either turn around the results or force a recount in the state Supreme Court race.
In a statewide race like this one, a second-place finisher may demand a recount when they trail by .5% of the votes cast in that contest or 10,000 votes, whichever is less.
The ultimate outcome of the race between Riggs and Griffin would have minimal impact on makeup of the high court, beyond solidifying conservatives' hold on power. Republicans now hold a 5-2 majority over liberal justices.
That conservative majority flexed its muscle last year when reversing an earlier ruling that had deemed Republican-drawn redistricting plans to be unconstitutional and excessively partisan.
The turnaround enabled GOP state lawmakers to redraw district maps in their favor. With the new district plans in place for this year's elections, North Carolina will be going from an evenly divided Congressional delegation, split 7-7 between Republicans and Democrats, to a heavy 10-3 GOP tilt.
