WFAE’s All Things Considered host Nick de la Canal spoke with reporter Steve Harrison about the impact Hurricane Helene might have on the Nov. 5 election, which is fast approaching. Some mail ballots have been sent and early in-person voting begins in 17 days.
De la Canal: Steve, walk me through the key dates coming up ahead of Election Day on November 5.
Harrison: So North Carolinians are already voting, with absentee mail ballots.
But if you live in the counties most impacted by the storm, that is, for now, not happening. The postal service has said it’s not delivering any mail to parts of those counties, which means you can’t request a mail ballot by mail, and you can’t send one in.
Mail ballots were already delayed by more than two weeks because the state Supreme Court ordered the state to reprint ballots to take Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s name off the presidential race. And the General Assembly eliminated the three-day grace period for mail ballots to arrive after Election Day. Unless it’s an overseas or military mail ballot, they have to arrive in the county elections office by 7:30 p.m.
In the 2022 midterms, about 5% of North Carolina voters voted by mail. In 2020, it was much higher — at nearly 20% — but, of course, that was during the COVID-19 pandemic.
De la Canal: And in-person early voting starts October 17.
Harrison: The state Board of Elections is holding an emergency meeting this hour to talk about the impact of the storm on the election. (The board voted to give county elections boards flexibility to change their upcoming meeting dates, if needed.)
In the future, the state elections board could move early voting sites and polling places for Election Day. And it’s likely that people in counties impacted by the storm won’t be required to show a photo ID to vote, though they would fill out an affidavit and then cast a provisional ballot.
And this has happened before: Hurricane Florence caused a lot of inland flooding in eastern North Carolina in mid-September 2018 before the midterms that year. And in 2016, before the presidential election, Hurricane Matthew also led to flooding in places like Robeson, Moore, Hoke and Harnett counties.
But it appears Helene’s impact on the election could be bigger than both of those storms.
I talked to Western Carolina political science professor Chris Cooper, who is in Sylva, which is west of Asheville.
He said he thought the roughly six counties in the far western part of the state should be in good shape for early voting to begin in two and a half weeks. But the worst impacts of the storm were to the east — he said he just doesn’t know how prepared counties will be like Transylvania, Madison, Buncombe, Hendersonville.
De la Canal: So let’s assume the counties are back up and running, early voting sites are set up, as planned. It’s safe to say we could still have some big impacts right?
Harrison: Absolutely. Early in-person voting is now critical to both parties. In fact, in the 2022 election, a little more than half of all ballots were cast in the in-person early voting period.
But the storm is a huge wildcard. You are going to have people who are focused on rebuilding their lives instead of the election. You will have people who are living elsewhere while they rebuild their home — maybe in North Carolina, maybe out of state.
Will we see lower turnout from Asheville to Morganton? I don’t know.
De la Canal: And what are the political parties saying about this?
Harrison: I talked to the state Republican Party, and they said, yes, this is on their mind, but it’s too early to comment on it.
But look, most of the counties devastated by this storm are red counties. Buncombe County, home to Asheville, is a blue county, and the same with Watauga County, home to Appalachian State, is a slightly blue county.
Republicans historically have piled up huge margins in places like Rutherford, McDowell and Burke counties. So will the GOP be able to turn out their voters in the same way as before?
De la Canal: So huge implications here in North Carolina and for the nation.
Harrison: Exactly, North Carolina could conceivably decide the presidency. Last time around, it came down to just about 75,000 votes.
And now we will have no idea how this will play out. There won’t be any accurate polling of the state for a long time, for starters.
This is a late September surprise.
