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Latest Duke Energy proposal on carbon reduction includes surging demand projections

Duke Energy solar panels
Courtesy of Duke Energy
File photo of Duke Energy solar panels. Part of Duke's proposed 2024 Carbon Plan includes using solar energy.

In its latest plan, Duke Energy is proposing a mix of energy sources to reach carbon reduction goals required by North Carolina state law.

The company filed supplemental planning documents last week with the North Carolina Utilities Commission. In the update, Duke forecasts a significant increase in energy demand in the coming years.

"New economic development wins ... are the primary driver of the increased electric demand. [The] estimated peak load growth by 2030 is eight times the growth projected just two years ago," Duke Energy said in a fact sheet. "The supplemental updates to Duke Energy’s resource plan reflect our focus on delivering a path to producing cleaner energy that protects grid reliability and affordability while meeting the energy demands of a growing and economically vibrant region."

Clean energy advocates have criticized the plan. Several environmental groups argue it depends too heavily on natural gas and phases out fossil fuels too slowly.

"[Duke is] pushing so hard against our transition to clean energy at the pace that we need. Duke continues to create artificial barriers to renewable energy," said Sierra Club field manager Mikaela Curry. "This fossil-focused approach leaves customers stuck with skyrocketing energy bills while our communities suffer from polluted air and water."

For its part, Duke said the company remains committed to renewable energies, according to spokesperson Bill Norton.

"Renewables are a critical part of the energy mix now and they're going to be a greater part going forward," Norton said.

A graph included in Duke Energy's latest Carbon Plan filing shows projected energy demands over the next several years. The solid light blue line represents energy demands predicted in the spring of 2023. The solid bright green line represents energy demands predicted in the fall of 2023.
Duke Energy
A graph included in Duke Energy's latest Carbon Plan filing shows projected energy demands over the next several years. The solid light blue line represents energy demands predicted in the spring of 2023. The solid bright green line represents energy demands predicted in the fall of 2023.

A 2021 North Carolina state law requires Duke Energy to reduce its carbon emissions by 70% compared to 2005 levels by 2030, and to be carbon neutral by 2050. The law requires this so-called Carbon Plan to be updated every two years. The law also allows the utilities commission to delay meeting the 2030 goal in the interest of protecting electric grid supplies, or if certain nuclear and wind-generation construction is authorized.

In its latest filing, Duke Energy is proposing three pathways that would meet the 70% reduction goal by 2030, 2033, and 2035. Each pathway includes a mix of energy sources, including solar, battery storage, nuclear, natural gas, and onshore and offshore wind. Each option would raise customer power bills by different levels.

Duke wants NC Utilities Commission to approve its proposed 2035 pathway, saying in one document that option is "the most reasonable, least cost, and least-risk portfolio."

Critics say delaying the 2030 goal is not necessary.

"We’re hopeful the NC Utilities Commission will require Duke to pursue a path that controls costs for customers while meeting North Carolina’s 2030 carbon emission reduction goal on time," said Will Scott, Southeast Climate and Clean Energy Director at the Environmental Defense Fund.

During the 2022 Carbon Plan proceedings, clean energy groups intervened and filed their own recommended proposals. Similar action is expected this year.

Last week's filing is part of the ongoing process to finalize the 2024 Carbon Plan. Public hearings will be held across the state throughout the month of April. A final 2024 plan will come at the end of the year.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Celeste Gracia covers the environment for WUNC. She has been at the station since September 2019 and started off as morning producer.
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