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Some of the most consequential and controversial issues — abortion and voting access, education, health care and criminal justice — are largely decided by state lawmakers who are, more likely than not, on your ballot this year.
State legislators wield significant power, which has been amplified with Congress gridlocked and policymaking punted to the fifty so-called “laboratories of democracy” to pass laws dealing with abortion, guns, schools, voting, LGBTQ rights and more.
But, increasingly, voters’ attention is devoted to narratives spun in national politics, even as legislatures play an outsized role in modern policymaking.
Political parties and interest groups are spending millions of dollars trying to sway legislative elections this year. In at least six states, the margins are so close that partisan control of the legislature could flip.
Republicans have more legislative power than Democrats heading into this year’s elections, controlling 55% of the nation’s 7,386 legislative seats, according to an NPR analysis. Overall, the GOP is on top in 57 of the country’s 99 legislative chambers.
Republicans have veto-proof majorities in 20 states, allowing them to override governors’ bill vetoes. Democrats have veto-proof majorities in nine states.
The ability to override a governor’s veto is especially potent in Kansas, Kentucky and North Carolina — states where Republicans have supermajority control of the Legislature and a Democratic governor. Democrats in Kansas and North Carolina are hoping to win enough seats to break Republican supermajorities this year.
Here's a look at some of the legislatures where partisan control hangs in the balance this year.
Arizona
Democrats believe they have a chance to win total control of Arizona’s Legislature and governor’s office this year with Republicans defending narrow two-seat majorities in both the state House and Senate.
Abortion access has been front-and-center in Arizona after the state Supreme Court ordered a Civil War-era abortion ban into effect and legislators scrambled to repeal it. Democrats are taking aim at GOP lawmakers who voted against repealing the ban.
And voters will decide whether to add abortion protections to their state constitution during a referendum on Election Day — one of 10 states with a reproductive rights ballot measure this year.
The state’s Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs was elected in 2022. She set a record for the most vetoes in Arizona history — striking down conservative bills involving elections, immigration and transgender people.
But Hobbs has been cuffed by the Republican-led Legislature and hasn’t been able to champion many policies on her own. If Democrats were to flip control of the legislature, they say they would scale back a massive $700 million school voucher program passed by Republicans.
Democrats haven’t had full control of the governor’s office and Legislature since 1966.
Michigan
Democrats are attempting to preserve the trifecta they gained in 2022 after Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won reelection and the party gained narrow majorities in both legislative chambers.
Whitmer credited the abortion constitutional amendment on the ballot that year for the Democratic victories after she and other candidates made the issue central to their campaigns. Their wins meant Democrats were in full control of the state for the first time in four decades.
Since then, Michigan Democrats have passed progressive policies like abortion protections, gun safety and an expansion of prevailing wage rules while repealing conservative provisions like “right-to-work” legislation.
There are no state Senate elections this year and only the House is in play. Republicans argue Democrats have pushed the state too far to the left and they can provide a check on Whitmer’s administration.
Minnesota
Republicans are also trying to undermine a trifecta in Minnesota where the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, Democrats’ official name in the North Star State, controls both legislative chambers and the governor’s office.
Democrats are defending a slim majority in the House and there is a political tie in the Senate after a legislator dropped out to run for Congress. A special election for the district, located in the Minneapolis suburbs, will determine control of the Senate.
Andrew Karch, a political science professor at the University of Minnesota, says it’s hard to make voters aware of these elections when there’s a splashy presidential race going on.
"I think that there's a real tendency for these races to sort of fly beneath the radar,” he says. I think in a lot of ways, there aren't that many messages that actually are bubbling up. I think again, these races often tend to get overshadowed by national politics and by other statewide campaigns."
Under Democratic control the Legislature passed — and Gov. Tim Walz signed — bills that provide free meals for kids at school, restore voting rights to some people with felony convictions and reinforce abortion access and transgender rights.
New Hampshire
Control of the Granite State’s largest-in-the-nation Legislature has bounced back and forth over the years, but Republicans currently have a trifecta. The GOP currently holds a slim majority with 197 of the state House’s 400 seats (there are seven vacancies) and 14 out of 24 Senate seats. After five two-year terms, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is not running again, leaving a rare open election for governor in this state without term limits. The race to succeed him is likely the most competitive in the country this year between Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig.
New Hampshire is one of the few states in New England without abortion protections enshrined in its state constitution and Democrats hope the issue, along with the open election for governor, will boost turnout.
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State is one of two legislatures with split control — Republicans control the Senate and Democrats control the House.
Democrats hope recent statewide victories — the elections of Gov. Josh Shapiro and U.S. Sen. John Fetterman — will trickle down to local races in a year when the battleground state has been flooded with national attention. That year, Democrats won control of the state House by gaining 12 seats.
If Republicans win a majority in the House and take full control of the Legislature, it likely spells conflict between lawmakers and Shapiro.
Wisconsin
Democrats hope new political maps — redrawn by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers after the state Supreme Court struck down Republican-drawn maps in 2023 — will lead to a shakeup of the GOP-led Legislature.
Republicans have controlled the Legislature for more than a decade under maps that favored the GOP. According to Wisconsin Public Radio, at least 61 members of the state Assembly and Senate won’t run in their old districts — nearly half of the Legislature. Democrats are running candidates in 97 of the Assembly’s 99 races and in each of the 16 open Senate races.
Democrats argue the legislative maps have been out of step with voters after a series of statewide victories, including Evers’ reelection in 2022.
Senior politics reporter at MPR, Dana Ferguson, contributed to this story.
Copyright 2024 NPR
