Summer 2025 will be remembered in central North Carolina for torrential rain and flash flooding, including from Tropical Storm Chantal. But the season ends on a dry note, according to assistant climatologist Corey Davis with the State Climate Office.
"We've now gone about three weeks in a row since the middle of August without any significant rain across a good chunk of central and eastern North Carolina," he said.
The latest drought monitor report shows about 45% of the state is "abnormally dry." That means some crops are wilting and stream levels are below normal.
"Areas like Kinston are starting to see stream flows on the Neuse River dropping," Davis said. "That's usually a good sign that they're trending toward drought."
Several counties along the Virginia border are also experiencing abnormally dry conditions. The lack of rain, according to Davis, is part of a new seasonal trend.
"It's worth noting that each of the last four falls in North Carolina have seen pockets of severe drought develop, and we know when that happens at this time of the year, then things like wildfire activity begin to be more of a concern," he said.
The risk of wildfires is high in western North Carolina, where debris from Helene remains in many forests. Davis said the U.S. Forest Service is monitoring the situation, but state officials warn that staff shortages could hamper response to a major fire. About 100 positions are vacant in the N.C. Forest Service, according to Carolina Public Press. Federal agencies that respond to fires have also faced cuts.
Davis predicts that dry weather will continue through September, and the best chance for rain will come from a tropical system.
"It's really feast or famine with rainfall," he said. "If we do get a tropical system that can lead to the flooding like we've seen from Chantal, like we saw last year from Helene. But if we miss out on that rain, we can see more areas slip into dryness."
Looking back, July was an unusually wet month. According to the State Climate Office, Chapel Hill had its wettest July on record. 16.41 inches of rain fell on the town, most of it during Chantal. Burlington broke a rainfall record set in 1999, at 17.74 inches. Fast-rising water from Bolin Creek forced residents out of the homes and caused millions of dollars in damage at University Place and Eastgate shopping centers.
Orange County has relied on state and local funds to help storm victims. While loans are available from the Small Business Administration, Gov. Josh Stein has requested a disaster declaration from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. FEMA has yet to approve the request.
