North Carolina no longer has any particularly competitive Congressional districts, thanks to the new map passed this week at President Donald Trump’s request.
To get a better sense for how this will play out in the courts and in next year’s midterm election, Western Carolina University political scientist Chris Cooper joined this week’s WUNC Politics Podcast.
While incumbent Democratic Congressman Don Davis says he’s not dropping out, Cooper says the odds are against him in both the redrawn 1st and 3rd districts.
“You never want to say it's impossible, you never want to say it can't happen — we do see strange things from time to time, but it would be a real break from existing voting patterns,” Cooper said. “It would take the Republicans nominating somebody as unpopular as a Mark Robinson for them to be able to lose this race, or a political tsunami the likes of which we haven't seen in this country in decades.”
This conversation has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.
How were Republicans able to shift the 1st District to being more or less a GOP safe seat, without at the same time making the 3rd District competitive to where it wasn't necessarily going to be a slam dunk for them anymore?
“There was more room to give in the 3rd. Greg Murphy won – a healthy margin doesn't begin to describe his margin in the 3rd Congressional district last round.
“The effect was to shuttle out some African-American voters, shuttle out some Democratic voters (from the 1st District) and then replace them in the 1st with folks who are more likely to lean towards the Republican Party and are slightly less diverse.”
Looking at the broader statewide Congressional map, would one of these newly redrawn districts (1st or 3rd) be the best shot for Democrats to win a GOP-leaning district, or are they likely to put their resources into another district?
“The 11th congressional district out in the mountains is actually the most competitive Congressional district in the state of North Carolina. I'll be very interested to see what the Democratic Party at the national level does.”
Is there any sense for what the new map is going to mean for the Republican candidates in the 1st and 3rd? There are three of them who are already running, hoping to go up against Don Davis.
“All these folks have a choice to make. Are they going to stick with the 1st, are they going to go to the 3rd? Are they going to make another decision? We had a Republican in the (1st District) race from Lenoir County. Lenoir County is now in the 3rd Congressional District. I'm fascinated to see what decisions these candidates make.”
We're expecting some kind of lawsuit over these maps. What are the odds that plaintiffs challenging these maps might have any success in court?
“I think somewhat limited. We saw an example of this with the Pierce lawsuit. My guess is it's going to be a fairly similar argument about racial dilution, and obviously that met with ends that were favorable to the defendants, favorable to the legislature, not favorable to the plaintiffs.
“My crystal ball certainly doesn't work perfectly, when it comes to what any particular judge might do on any particular day based on any particular case. But I think the recent sort of litigation history would say this is going to be tough.”
Listen to the full conversation with Cooper on the WUNC Politics Podcast.
