A cool start to fall bucks a warming trend for the Carolinas — but doesn't change the big picture

A version of this article first appeared in WFAE’s Climate Newsletter. Sign up here to receive weekly climate news straight to your inbox.

Fall across the U.S. is marked by big temperature swings, and North Carolina is no exception. The past week of unseasonably cool weather provides a prime example. On average, Augusts in Charlotte are 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than they were decades ago, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t exceptions to the rule.

“32nd coolest August on record in Charlotte,” WCNC meteorologist Brad Panovich posted on X last week. “The coolest since 2013. 2.4° below average.”

So, in a warming world, what does an unseasonably cool start to fall really mean?

“The ‘what happened to global warming?’ comments are sure to follow,” said David Dickson, a meteorologist with News 2 in Raleigh during a climate webinar Wednesday. Before any U.S. senators start looking for snowballs to sneak into the Capitol building, let’s reflect on the difference between weather and climate:

• Weather refers to an area’s atmospheric conditions on a given day. If you said, “Oh, it feels great today” or “Ouch, this pavement just scorched the skin off my feet,” you’re referring to the weather that day. 
• The pattern of these conditions over the course of years and decades constitutes that region’s climate. If you said something like “We like to build snowmen out of mud and slush,” or “The summer is so balmy here, we should adopt the Spanish tradition of siestas,” then you’d be describing North Carolina’s climate. 

“Weather tells you what clothes you should be wearing today,” Dickson said. “Climate tells you what clothes you should have in your closet.”

When we’re talking about climate change, we’re talking about trends in weather over the years. Summers and fall in the United States have warmed about 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1970s, according to the Environmental Protection Agency, but what that means locally will vary state to state and year to year. For example, North Carolina is warming more slowly on average than some states, in part because we were already hot and humid to begin with. In Charlotte, the average fall temperature has increased 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1970. Meanwhile, the fall in Anchorage, Alaska — a higher latitude city that regularly experiences snow in the fall — is about 3.8 degrees warmer.

Climate Central

On the topic of wardrobes, our changing climate might make planning cute fall outfits more challenging. While overnight average temperatures in Charlotte have increased less than a degree, daytime temperatures have increased 3.3 degrees.

As the gap between daytime highs and nighttime lows increases, you might notice yourself carrying around a just-in-case jacket more often — even on the days you’re soaking through your shirt at 9 a.m.