A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
So can Democrats and Republicans come to an agreement on extending those expiring COVID-era Affordable Care Act subsidies? For more on that political fight, we've called Jonathan Cohn. He's a senior national correspondent for conservative news site The Bulwark. He's also the author of "The Ten-Year War: Obamacare And The Unfinished Crusade For Universal Coverage."
Jonathan, so we just heard the next big question is whether Democrats in the Senate can come up with a bill that'll pass with at least a handful of Republican senators. Do you see any option out there that could get enough support?
JONATHAN COHN: Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't bet a lot of money on it, for the reasons your correspondent just was laying out. If there were an easy agreement here, we'd have it by now. But I do think the underlying reality - we were just listening to it. All these people who don't have health insurance are going to have trouble paying for their health insurance because these expiring subsidies go away. And, you know, they are disproportionately in Republican districts in Republican states. That has not changed. That is going to put pressure on Republican legislators to come to the table and try to find a way to do something about this.
MARTÍNEZ: So based on what you just said, then, are Republicans viewing that as a priority at all that - one that maybe they could be or should be solving?
COHN: It depends on which Republicans you're talking about. Obviously, Speaker Mike Johnson - no, it's very clear he does not want to do this. But, you know, there are Republican members of the House who are interested. Don Bacon from Nebraska has actually a proposal out there. There are a number of Republican senators who have talked about it, and they are talking about it because they're reacting to their constituents, and they can read the polls as well as anybody. They know this does not look good for their party to have this giant premium increase going. So there's some appetite there. Whether that - whether you can get from that appetite to an agreement, obviously, is a whole other question.
MARTÍNEZ: But the big Republican option - at least some Senate Democrats are open to extending those expiring subsidies in exchange for stricter restrictions on abortion. And that's something for Democrats that seems to be a nonstarter. So are we right where we started from already?
COHN: They would have to resolve the abortion issue, and that's one of several that I think could get in the way. That, I think, is a nonstarter for the Democrats. You know, I think the easy way to think about this is I think Democrats are open. My - this is my guess, is, you know, I could - you can imagine a deal where the Republican - where the Democrats have to settle for half a loaf. They can't get all the extension they want. They can't - you know, not quite as much money, maybe not as many years. Where I don't think they're going to be open for business is on anything that undermines or holds back on the Affordable Care Act. They're happy to - I can see negotiations over what this extension looks like. I do not see any negotiations where part of the deal is we're going to start to dismantle, you know, this law that the Republicans call Obamacare.
MARTÍNEZ: Now, does President Trump need to get directly involved somehow in this issue to get something done?
COHN: I would assume so. I mean, for a negotiation like this to come through in normal times, the president has to be deeply engaged, has to be the convener, has to bring the people together. I think that's even more so in this case because we know House Republicans. And again, I think it - that's where the sticking point's going to be 'cause the - yeah. You know, you - the Senate seems maybe like an easier deal. They're not going to vote, you know, yes unless, you know, Speaker Johnson allows a vote. And in general, they're going to take their cues from Trump, so, I mean, he's got to get engaged. He's got to be pushing this. And, you know, that - one could say maybe that's the biggest obstacle, 'cause so far, he has not.
MARTÍNEZ: Why do you think President Trump hasn't ever really been able to articulate a plan? Because he's always talked about repealing and replacing Obamacare. But then, when he's asked about a plan, he never seems to have much to say.
COHN: Yeah. So there's a basic contradiction here between what he says he wants to - what - the values of what he says he wants to deliver and the whole Republican Party says they want to deliver and what their actual plans would do. I mean, there's a fundamental divide in this country. Democrats want to get to universal coverage. They think the government should be heavily involved in making - guaranteeing health care for everyone. Republicans do not believe that. It's a principled fight, right? I mean, this is what we - liberal and conservative fight we've had over the generations.
The problem is, people like health care. So, you know, Donald Trump says, we're going to give you great health care, cheap health care for everybody, and it's going to be better than, you know, the Affordable Care Act. Well, they don't actually have plans that do that. They have plans that cut government health care plans. They cut Medicare. They cut subsidies. And, you know, from their standpoint, it's great. It's less government spending. You can put that money into tax cuts. But it does always mean there's - you know, millions of people are going to lose insurance if you do one of those plans. And there's not going to be protections for people with pre-existing conditions. So that's a contradiction, and he can't solve that any more than anyone else can.
MARTÍNEZ: Just a few seconds, Jonathan. Do you think centrist Democrats gave up their leverage by ending this shutdown now?
COHN: I - you know, my personal opinion is they had a little more of a hand to play out on this, I think, you know? But, you know, there's still a - there's still more of this game to be played.
MARTÍNEZ: Jonathan Cohn is a senior national correspondent for conservative news site The Bulwark. Jonathan, thanks.
COHN: Thanks for having me.
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