JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
President Trump has not explicitly called for regime change in Iran, but the U.S. and Israel have killed dozens of the country's top leaders and vowed to destroy all its major weapon systems. So what exactly is Trump's ultimate goal in Iran? NPR's Greg Myre joins us with more. Hi.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Juana.
SUMMERS: So what is President Trump saying that he wants in Iran?
MYRE: So Trump released a video at the start of the war on Saturday, and he called for the Iranian people to wait for the U.S. attacks to play out. And then he said in this video, quote, "when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take." So, Juana, that sounds a lot like regime change, but he didn't exactly say the words then, and he hasn't said them since. Other officials, like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, say this is strictly a military operation that's got nothing to do with nation-building or establishing democracy. Trump and his team have further muddied the waters by keep - they keep giving changing reasons on why the war was launched. Here's Democratic Congressman Jason Crow of Colorado.
JASON CROW: I mean, will the real justification for this conflict please stand up, right? It changes by the hour and depending upon who you talk to. Is it regime change? Is it nuclear weapons? It's changing constantly, and it's very disturbing.
SUMMERS: OK. So if Trump doesn't want regime change, or at least doesn't want to call it that, how might he want to see this end?
MYRE: Yeah. That's also not clear, but the U.S. and Israel have already killed 50 or more top Iranian leaders, so much of that old regime is gone. There's a three-person interim leadership in Iran and speculation that the new supreme leader for the country could be the son of the supreme leader who was killed in an airstrike. So we're going to see new figures. A lot of their military strength might be gone, but they could very much have the same or similar world view as the old regime. Trump has acknowledged that the new leaders of Iran could be just as problematic as the old ones, but regardless, he doesn't want the U.S. making big investments in Iran once the military campaign is over. Now, Congressman Crow was an Army ranger who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan. He's a sharp critic of Trump and the way he's handling this war, but he did have these thoughts on regime change.
CROW: What about the last 25 years would lead us to think that this is a core competency, that regime change is something that we are good at and turns out well, right? Even when we topple regimes, whether it's in Iraq or Afghanistan, the alternative usually doesn't turn out better for us.
SUMMERS: So if the president decides that he's achieved his military aims, could he just call off the operation and end this?
MYRE: Yeah, Juana, he could do that, but then the U.S. would lose leverage over what comes next in Iran. Trump has ordered at least seven other military operations in the past year. The others were much smaller, but they were also based on this overwhelming U.S. air power, not ground troops, and then that allowed the president to start and stop these operations at will. But just leaving Iran would have consequences. For example, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants comprehensive regime change, and he may pursue additional goals in Iran. The Arab states in the region don't want an unstable Iran spreading chaos, and certainly world oil markets will care about whether oil is flowing safely and freely in the Gulf.
SUMMERS: Greg, I mean, we're all aware of what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. Are there examples of successful regime change engineered by the United States?
MYRE: So I asked Kori Schake at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. She said, yes, but they're rare, and she cited just three examples in the past century. They were Germany and Japan after the U.S. defeated them in World War II, and in Panama, where the U.S. ousted its leader, Manuel Noriega, after a brief invasion in 1989. So not many examples of success, many more of failure.
SUMMERS: NPR's Greg Myre. Thanks so much.
MYRE: Sure thing, Juana. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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