LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Back in May, NPR put together a pair of focus groups with so-called double-haters, those voters that disapproved of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, to understand how they might make up their minds. A lot has changed since then. And the race, now between Kamala Harris and Trump, is tighter than it has ever been. So NPR went back to these very same voters this week to find out which way they are leaning. NPR correspondents Mara Liasson and Susan Davis join me now. Hello to you both.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Hi there.
SUSAN DAVIS, BYLINE: Great to be here.
FADEL: So I think the obvious starting point here is how many of these folks still are double-haters?
DAVIS: Well, only four of the original 12 swing voters say they are still unhappy with both candidates, but they're picking sides now. And the mood is slightly improved. Remember, the reason we were so focused on these voters is at the time they were estimated to make up as much as a quarter of the electorate, which would have been a historic high, until the race was completely scrambled when Biden dropped out. These focus groups were put together for NPR by Rich Thau of Engagious and Sago market research. And all of these voters voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
So back in May, seven were leaning Biden, two leaning Trump and three said they probably wouldn't vote at all. As of today, five are leaning or locked in for Harris, four are leaning or locked in for Trump and one said they would write it in. We weren't able to contact two of the original participants, but it's clear there has been some shift back towards Trump. And, Mara, it was super interesting how little these voters understood Harris' economic agenda, even the ones ready to vote for her.
LIASSON: That's right. And there are two reasons for that, one she had no control over - like she's only been in the race for X number of weeks. She hasn't had the time that Trump has had since 2015 to define himself and his agenda. But some of it is also on her. You know, when she's asked a question in an interview, for instance, with MSNBC about what's her plan, she starts out talking about how she's from the middle class. And then, you know, two paragraphs later, she gets to the fact that she's offering tax credits for starting a family, starting a business, taking care of someone at home. She does have a plan, but she hasn't figured out how to make it front and center.
FADEL: So how did Harris becoming the nominee change the way these voters see the race, Mara?
LIASSON: Well, in terms of the voters that are supporting her, they feel much more positively about her, and more excited about voting for her than they did about Biden. And none of the nine voters that we talked to said they held her accountable for any of Biden's missteps, so she's clearly not seen as a clone of Joe Biden. But it is also true that the movement toward Harris seems more of an anti-Trump sentiment than a pro-Harris sentiment.
Trump is much more clearly defined and often in a negative way. But voters in our group were not quite sure what Harris would do. She's a bit of a blank slate. And voters are less afraid of her. Win or lose, they don't think Harris will undermine the election in any way. And there's much more fear around Trump and political violence, especially if he loses, since he has repeatedly refused to say he would accept the results of any election that he didn't win.
FADEL: Now, all 12 of these voters were Biden 2020 voters. And at least four of them seem likely to go back to voting for Trump. How big of a red flag is that for the Harris campaign?
LIASSON: It's a big red flag. Now, this is, again, only anecdata. It's not a poll. But it is an example of why she hasn't been able to close the sale, why she hasn't been able to develop a lead outside the margin of error, because she has still not locked down the Biden 2020 coalition. She's still behind Biden in terms of where he was at this time in 2020 with key groups like African Americans, Hispanics and young people, mostly because she's been bleeding African American and Hispanic men to Trump.
DAVIS: Leila, let's listen to a bit of what these voters told Rich about how they view Harris and the state of the race.
RICH THAU: What's the one emotion that you feel the most when you see Vice President Harris on TV or on your device? Bob, why don't you go first?
BOB: Doubtful.
THAU: OK. Rob.
ROB: Dumbfounded. She doesn't make any sense.
THAU: Cherlyn.
CHERLYN: Hopeful.
THAU: Eugene.
EUGENE: Also hopeful but louder than Cherlyn.
CHERLYN: (Laughter).
THAU: OK. By a show of fingers, who puts a lot of blame on Harris for things that went wrong during Biden's term? None of you do. Really? Why not?
ROB: She doesn't have any power.
EUGENE: Yeah, that's basic civics. She doesn't really do a whole lot unless the president gives her something to do or she's presiding over the Senate.
THAU: OK. Please fill in the blank on the next statement. If Kamala Harris wins the election, I will - fill in the blank.
ROB: Still live.
THAU: OK.
ROB: With hyperinflation, probably.
THAU: Cherlyn.
CHERLYN: Be relieved.
THAU: Bob.
BOB: Smile. Be relieved.
THAU: Eugene.
EUGENE: Wait for noon on January 20 to make sure she's installed as president before I celebrate.
BOB: Good point.
THAU: OK. Please fill in the blank on this next statement. If Donald Trump wins the election, I will...
EUGENE: Pray to God that roving gangs of white nationalists don't come and snatch me out of my house just because I'm not white or snatch my wife out of the house because she's a Guatemalan national, who was naturalized, and try to ship her back to Guatemala.
THAU: Cherlyn.
CHERLYN: Worry.
THAU: Bob.
BOB: Then pray that he surrounds himself with advisers who are competent.
THAU: Rob.
ROB: Celebrate good times.
DAVIS: And in the second focus group, Rich heard from some voters likely to vote again for Trump.
THAU: So Iet's start first with Jennifer (ph). We gave you two different options, or two scenarios, the last time if you remember. Biden versus Trump and then, separately, Biden, Trump, RFK Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West. In both of those scenarios, Jennifer, you said you would take Biden. In this election, who are you likely to vote for and why?
JENNIFER: I'll probably vote for Trump because he's a better-known entity to me in 2016 than what Kamala Harris has done as vice president.
THAU: OK. Juanita (ph), in a two-way race, you thought you would not vote. In a five-way race, you would have taken Robert Kennedy Jr. Tell me now, how are you likely to vote?
JUANITA: Harris.
THAU: Harris. And why?
JUANITA: I'm just too concerned about Trump. He actually scares me. He seems like he - though he has some good plans, his tactics just really scare me.
THAU: Kimberly (ph), you were going to take Biden in a two-way and RFK Jr. in a five-way. Who are you likely to vote for and why?
KIMBERLY: I am really 50/50 right now. And I'm 50/50 because economically, Harris scares me because our family is really struggling. And again, I just - thinking of another four years of these gas prices and all the things scares me. But Trump scares me for losing, you know, some of our rights, as well as just you never know what's going to come out of his mouth.
THAU: Got it. OK. Alicia (ph), you told me that you would be voting Trump in a two-way contest and RFK Jr. in a five-way contest.
ALICIA: Yep.
THAU: Who are you likely to vote for now and why?
ALICIA: I would say I'm voting for Trump.
THAU: OK. All right. By a show of fingers, if Vice President Harris loses the election, who will think it had something to do with her being a woman? Three of you - Juanita, Kimberly and Jennifer. Juanita, in what ways?
JUANITA: Well, I know, especially the area that I live in, I've heard several of the gentlemen say that we are not ready for a woman president, that she'll be too emotional to be a president.
THAU: Jennifer, what about you?
JENNIFER: I agree. Some men have bias, and it's still prevalent.
FADEL: And joining me now is Rich Thau, who conducted these focus groups for NPR and who has spent much of 2024 talking to swing voters all across the country. Rich, thanks for being here.
THAU: Great to be here.
FADEL: So Kamala Harris really doesn't focus on her gender in this campaign, but clearly, swing voters in these groups think it could be an issue. Is that a sentiment you've heard more broadly in your focus groups?
THAU: Absolutely. I heard it last week with 12 Trump-to-Biden voters across Pennsylvania. While they think others hold this bias, they say that they don't feel that way themselves. But in some cases, I'm not so sure. It's easy to project onto other people what you might feel yourself.
FADEL: I think for a lot of listeners, it's really hard to believe that there are any truly undecided voters left 18 days before Election Day. What's keeping them on the fence?
THAU: So for a lot of these undecided voters, it's a choice between someone they don't like, Trump, and someone they don't know very well, Harris. Most of them dislike Trump personally, and in fact, as you heard, some of them fear him. But they like the pre-pandemic economy, and they're struggling financially right now. And they don't know what Harris will do to improve their lives.
FADEL: It sounds like, for a lot of swing voters, Harris generates more positive feelings than Biden did, but she's still a bit undefined. Do you see that as more of a benefit or more of a disadvantage at this point?
THAU: It's more of a disadvantage. It's hard to beat something with nothing. By something, I mean nostalgia for the Trump economy back in 2019, and by nothing, I mean a lack of knowledge of Harris' economic plans. In fact, these respondents said they don't know what's in her plan and would like to see it. In fact, if Harris displayed a link to her plan in her TV ads, they say they'd use the QR code to look it up. Now, whether or not they'd actually do that, who knows? I think, from her perspective, it would convey that she's transparent and forward-thinking and has a plan that she has confidence in.
FADEL: So in a race between a sitting vice president and a former president, which candidate do swing voters see as being more of a change agent in Washington?
THAU: Well, not just with these groups, but other groups I've done, consistently Trump is definitely viewed as the agent of change, and Harris is not. The question, though, is whether he brings good change or bad change. And that's what they're still weighing if they're still undecided.
FADEL: Rich Thau, thanks so much for being here.
THAU: Thank you.
(SOUNDBITE OF MVSO SONG, "HOLD CLEAR") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
