SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Monday marks one year since the Hamas October 7 attacks on Israel, and those attacks badly damaged Israeli's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's standing as a hard-liner who would keep his country safe. But last week's assassination of the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has bolstered his reputation as a wartime leader, and it was underscored days later when Iran attacked Israel with a barrage of missiles. Anshel Pfeffer is Israel correspondent for The Economist and author of the biography "Bibi," about Benjamin Netanyahu. He joins us now from Jerusalem and thank you for being with us.
ANSHEL PFEFFER: Good afternoon from Jerusalem.
SIMON: Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Iran - I'm going to quote him now, "made a big mistake, and will pay for its attack this week." What does that mean?
PFEFFER: Well, Netanyahu's thinking, and that of other senior officials in the Israeli government and security establishment is that Iran, by attacking Israel last week with - sorry, this week - with 181 ballistic missiles, has basically given Israel the opportunity and the legitimacy to strike back with increasing force. And now the real question is, what will Israel strike at?
SIMON: Yeah. Well, that's the question I'd like to raise with you. Do you have any indication? Will it include oil facilities? Will it include nuclear facilities? Is there any way of knowing?
PFEFFER: Well, there's talk in Israeli security establishment of both, whether it's to target Iran's creaking economic infrastructure, then the oil terminals are crucial to Iran for Iran's income - without the oil, which is also the subject of sanctions, but they're evading the sanctions, is basically what Iran needs to keep on going. There's a lot of economic problems there. And without that oil, the regime will be in big trouble.
Then, on the other hand, there's this what I'm hearing some people call a historic opportunity to go after the nuclear sites, which for many years has been a concern. Iran getting close, as the reports from international agencies are saying, to having enough fissile material for a nuclear warhead. So both of those are totally on the agenda.
SIMON: Is there any concern, Mr. Pfeffer, that the Israeli military is getting overextended between the fighting that continues in Gaza and then now also Lebanon?
PFEFFER: There's a lot of concern. I'm hearing it mainly from officers and soldiers in the reserve units who have been called up now - many of them for the third time this year since October 7 - mainly to reinforce the units which are starting to operate now on the ground in Lebanon, and also to keep the campaigning Gaza going. I'm hearing it from different levels that they say there's not enough soldiers, not enough vehicles for these two campaigns. These two campaigns are happening as we speak. But I think there is - on the one hand, there is a high level of motivation amongst the reservists, and they feel that that what they're doing is needed, but there's also a lot of exhaustion there.
SIMON: There were - I have to ask you about some strong words from President Biden yesterday. He was asked about the allegations a Democratic senator made that Prime Minister Netanyahu might be stalling on a cease-fire agreement in Gaza to assist Donald Trump's chances in November.
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PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: No administration has helped Israel more than I have. None. None. None. And I think Bibi should remember that. And whether he's trying to influence the election or not, I don't know, but I'm not counting on that.
SIMON: Well, he did mention the name of your book, Mr. Pfeffer.
PFEFFER: (Laughter).
SIMON: What do you make of that explanation? And do you think what has been proposed is possible, that the prime minister has an ulterior goal?
PFEFFER: Well, I think that any leader in that situation, with the time that we have with the American election just a few weeks away, will certainly be asking themselves what is their best policy, considering the fact that by January, there's going to be someone different in the White House. And President Biden, quite rightly, as he said, has done a huge amount for Israel in the past year. His support has been phenomenal. But he's not going to be the president in January. And whether it's going to be Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, that's something that Netanyahu is very, very aware of the fact that there may be a different policy, a different atmosphere towards him in Washington. And he seems to be certainly taking that into consideration. Now, Netanyahu, as we know, amongst world leaders, it is probably one of those who is most attuned to American politics and to this kind of changing circumstances.
SIMON: The Hamas attacks, October 7, 2023, were an enormous security failure. There were huge demonstrations over the past year, as I don't have to tell you, yet Benjamin Netanyahu is still in power. How secure is his position? What do you make of that?
PFEFFER: Well, at the end of the day, even though we're seeing in the polls that a large majority of Israelis have lost trust in Netanyahu, there is an electoral system. And that means that he doesn't have to resign in the same way in the United States - the system gives the president four years of - a four-year term guaranteed. In Netanyahu's case, he has a majority in Israel's parliament, in the Knesset. And as long as that majority, as long as those Knesset members are supporting him - and they still are because they don't really see much of the alternative for themselves to have power after an election - then he will stay on for as long as his term lasts. And that's certainly his intention.
SIMON: We've just got half a minute left, and of course, do you see an end?
PFEFFER: It's very difficult to say where the ends is. And we're talking now about three fronts. We're talking about a war in Gaza, a war in Lebanon with Hezbollah, and now also a war with Iran. So trying to predict when any of those wars will end is extremely difficult at this point. I wouldn't wager a guess.
SIMON: Anshel Pfeffer of The Economist, thank you so much for being with us. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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