SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, who led the powerful militant group, Hezbollah, for over 30 years, has been a shocking development in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. The killing decimates the Iran-backed group, which is designated by the U.S. and many other Western countries as a terrorist organization. And it raises concerns of a broader war in the region and brings up major questions about what comes next and what role the U.S. might play in shaping it. Dana Stroul is the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East. She's currently the director of research at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank. Welcome.
DANA STROUL: Thanks so much for having me.
DETROW: I want to start with this. You've seen a lot of analysis of this assassination, saying it was shocking, saying that Israel wasn't really thought to be capable of doing this or willing to take a step like this. What to you has been most surprising about the past two or three days?
STROUL: What is surprising, and I think has to challenge our thinking is that Israel has been profoundly successful in eliminating all of Hezbollah's top leadership and eliminating a significant amount of its weapons arsenal. This is so critical because Hezbollah is the insurance policy for Iran and the regime in Tehran.
So until the last couple weeks, if Iran felt that its regime was threatened, it was going to look to Hezbollah to escalate against Israel. At this point in time, that insurance policy no longer exists. So how we think about security and stability in the Middle East, how we think about using military force, and the opportunities that now present themselves to imagine a different Middle East are all on the table.
DETROW: You tweeted yesterday, Hezbollah leadership has been decimated. If you look at this assassination, if you look at the broader strikes from Israel over the last few days, it seems like that is the case. This isn't a situation of a lieutenant is elevated and things go forward. Why, to you, are things going to be fundamentally different with Hezbollah, at least in the short term?
STROUL: Hezbollah is not only Iran's insurance policy against Israel, but it has actively been involved in other conflicts across the Middle East. Hezbollah has been on the ground in Yemen, training the Houthis. It has been on the ground in Syria, enabling Bashar al-Assad's regime in Damascus to survive. When you take that insurance policy and when you take the charismatic leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, who's really a core element of this Iran-directed network of terrorists across the region, there are so many new opportunities for how to restore stability and think through countering this network of terrorism that sows such human suffering and chaos across the region.
DETROW: Let's talk about the U.S. role here. We saw President Biden praise the killing of Nasrallah, and also direct the Pentagon to assess the U.S. troop force posture in the region - basically stand by, take a sense of how things are playing out here, whether or not they might escalate. What do you think the U.S. role is over the coming weeks?
STROUL: The U.S. role from October 7 has been to enable Israel to defend itself and to send a strong signal that it would not tolerate other actors stepping in to escalate the conflict and climb toward that regional war. If you think about Iran's broad strategy in the region, it has been to impose costs on Israel and to impose costs on the United States and, ultimately, forcefully expel U.S. forces from the region.
If you're the regime in Tehran today, you look around and, actually, your actions have caused the opposite effect. There's more U.S. posture in the region, more U.S. boots on the ground in the region. You have seen the Department of Defense repeatedly send aircraft carriers to the region. And now they have additional forces on prepare to deploy orders. This sends a real signal of commitment by the United States, and it's exactly what Iran doesn't want at this time.
DETROW: You know, there's so many key players here who could determine what happens next - Iran, Israel, Hezbollah - what's left of Hezbollah leadership - Hamas, the United States. What are the most important things that you're going to be keeping an eye on over the next few days, the next few weeks, to see which direction this all goes?
STROUL: First of all, Tehran has declared five days of mourning for Hassan Nasrallah. I think in those five days, there's going to be serious discussions in Tehran about whether to respond, how to respond and when to respond. So I'll be looking at what happens in this period of mourning and what sort of announcements come out after.
Number two, with the elimination of Nasrallah, but also his entire inner circle, as the U.S. and most Arab capitals and Europe want to move towards de-escalation and diplomacy, the question is, is there any individual left in Hezbollah with whom to negotiate? Then there's the question of whether or not there's opposition or what remains of the non-Hezbollah Lebanese government or Lebanese military who could step in and fill this vacuum and actually be a partner in security and stability.
And finally, of course, there are huge decisions in Israel. The Israeli government senses tremendous momentum in its campaign against Hezbollah. It also just, today, undertook a series of strikes again against the Houthis in Yemen. It looks like the Israelis feel now is the opportunity to continue to take as much capability and leadership off the table as possible, remaking the Middle East map. So whether or not there's appetite in Israel for diplomacy and de-escalation or whether they will remain committed to this high intensity of operations is a big question.
DETROW: Dana Stroul is the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East. Thank you so much for talking to us.
STROUL: Thanks for having me.
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